The Atlanta Hawks are rolling into Capital One Arena on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, with momentum, confidence, and a clear mission: crush a struggling Washington Wizards team still searching for its first win in over a month. Tipoff is set for 8:00 PM EST, though BetMGM lists it at 7:00 PM — a minor discrepancy that barely matters when the outcome feels so inevitable. This isn’t just a regular season game. It’s a 2025 NBA Cup Group Play Washington, D.C. contest, and the Hawks (11-7) are the only team in Group A with a winning record. The Wizards? They’re 1-15, losers of 14 straight, and their last win feels like a memory from another season.
Form vs. Fracture
The Hawks just beat the Charlotte Hornets 113-110 on Sunday, snapping a brief two-game skid and extending their current streak to two wins. They’re 6-4 against the spread over their last 10 games, and their three-point shooting — 37.4% from deep, per ESPN — ranks seventh in the Eastern Conference. They’ve got balance: Bogdanović hitting clutch shots, Hunter locking down wings, and young bigs like Onyeka Okongwu playing with surprising poise. They’re 3-0 against their own division, and they’ve won nine of their 18 games against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Wizards are a mess. Their 121-120 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Saturday wasn’t just a close game — it was a heartbreaker that exposed everything wrong with their roster. They led by 15 with seven minutes left. They couldn’t close. Their defense? A sieve. Leans.ai reports they’re allowing a staggering 130.3 points per game — the worst in the NBA. Their offense is erratic, their bench is hollow, and their leadership vacuum is palpable. They haven’t won as an underdog all year — just one win in 14 attempts.Betting Odds Tell the Story
The numbers don’t lie. Atlanta is a -10.5 favorite. That’s not a typo. The moneyline? -476 for the Hawks, +375 for the Wizards. That means you’d need to bet $476 just to win $100 on Atlanta. The over/under is 236.5. But here’s the twist: opponents of these two teams have combined to average 243.5 points per game — over seven points higher than this game’s total. That’s not a fluke. It’s a pattern. Eight of the last nine Wizards-Hawks games went over 235.5 points. The last 10 matchups averaged 117.9 points for Atlanta on the road, 112.1 for Washington at home. This game’s projected total? 236.5. It’s almost certainly going over. Forebet.com’s algorithm gives the Hawks a 77% chance to win. BetMGM’s model, which factors in injuries, pace, and player performance, says 64.7%. Fox Sports’ expert pick? Hawks 124, Wizards 113. That’s a 11-point win — right on the number. And yet, there’s a strange historical footnote: the Wizards have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against Atlanta. They’ve won by double digits in three of those. But that was when they had Kristaps Porziņģis. When they had a coherent system. When they weren’t playing for draft position.Why This Matters Beyond the Box Score
This game isn’t just about who wins. It’s about identity. The Hawks are building something — a young, athletic core with veteran poise. They’re playing with purpose. The Wizards? They’re in full rebuild mode. Their GM, Tommy Sheppard, has been clear: development over wins. But development doesn’t look like this. A 14-game losing streak isn’t just bad luck. It’s systemic. They’re turning the ball over too much. Their rotations are slow. Their shooters aren’t getting open looks. And their defense? It’s not just bad — it’s embarrassing. The NBA Cup is supposed to inject excitement into the early season. For Atlanta, it’s a chance to prove they’re legitimate contenders. For Washington, it’s another night to stare at the scoreboard and wonder when the tide will turn. But with no key injuries reported for either team, and Atlanta’s depth clearly superior, this isn’t a coin flip. It’s a coronation in waiting.What’s Next?
After this game, the Hawks head to Miami on Thursday, then host the Celtics next weekend. They’re in playoff position, and every win here matters for seeding. The Wizards? They’re in a freefall. Their next game is against the Pacers — a team that’s also bad, but at least they’ve won twice this month. Washington’s front office is reportedly evaluating trade options for their veterans, including Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija, who could be moved before the deadline. If this loss extends to 15, expect panic. If they win? It’ll be the biggest upset of the season.
Historical Context: A Franchise Divided
These two teams have met 62 times since the 1970s. The Hawks have won 35 of those — 10 more than Washington. But here’s the oddity: at Capital One Arena, the Wizards have historically covered the spread. They’ve won by 14.5 points or more in seven of their last eight home games against Atlanta. That’s not random. That’s coaching. That’s home-court magic. But that magic vanished when the roster turned over. The current Wizards roster has only one player — Kyle Kuzma — who’s ever played a meaningful game against Atlanta in the last three seasons. The rest? They’re learning on the job. And the Hawks? They’ve got six players with over 300 career games against Washington.Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game impact the Hawks’ playoff chances?
Every win in the NBA Cup counts toward seeding. The Hawks are currently seventh in the East, and a win here improves their tiebreakers and confidence. With only five games left in group play, they’re in prime position to finish top-two in Group A and advance. A loss would force them to rely on point differentials, which could be risky against teams like Boston or Philadelphia.
Why are the Wizards still playing so poorly despite having talented players?
The Wizards lack cohesion. Their defense has no identity — they switch too late, rotate too slow, and communicate poorly. Their offense relies too much on isolation plays. With no true floor general, they stall in the half-court. Even Kyle Kuzma, their best player, is shooting just 38% from the field. Coaching changes and roster turnover have created instability. They’re not bad players — they’re a team without direction.
Is the over/under of 236.5 a good bet?
Yes. Opponents of both teams have averaged 243.5 combined points this season. The last nine Hawks-Wizards games went over 235.5. Atlanta scores 119.85 away; Washington gives up 130.3 at home. Even if the Hawks slow it down, Washington’s defense will force turnovers and lead to fast breaks. Expect a high-scoring, sloppy game — and a clear over.
Can the Wizards cover the 10.5-point spread?
It’s unlikely. They’ve covered in seven of their last eight home games against Atlanta — but those were with Porziņģis and a more competitive roster. This year’s team is outmatched in talent, depth, and experience. Atlanta’s bench outscored Charlotte’s by 18 points on Sunday. Washington’s bench averages 27.3 points per game — dead last in the NBA. The spread is too wide for a team that can’t close games.
What’s the most telling stat in this matchup?
The 130.3 points per game the Wizards allow. That’s not just bad defense — it’s catastrophic. No team in NBA history has won a playoff series while allowing over 125 points per game. Atlanta’s offense is efficient, balanced, and unselfish. They’ll exploit every gap. The Wizards won’t have an answer.
Will this game affect draft lottery odds for Washington?
Absolutely. A 15th straight loss would drop Washington to the bottom of the league standings, improving their odds for a top-three pick. Front office sources say they’re already planning for the 2026 draft, possibly targeting a high-upside big like Zaccharie Risacher. But prolonged losing affects morale, development, and fan engagement — all things they need to rebuild sustainably.